Ocean Freight Market
Capacity & Demand: Carriers continue disciplined capacity management on Trans-Pacific lanes with tight vessel space, equipment availability, and blank sailings to support pricing increases. This follows trends of previous years as carriers work to firm up spot rates to support contract negotiations in the coming weeks and months. It is expected that carriers will persist in capacity management for the near future as BCO contract bidding season reaches a peak.
Pricing: Best 40’ GP/HC dry container rates have risen sharply week-over-week across all major U.S. gateways, with increases ranging from low double-digits to over 30% depending on the destination. Rates are expected to stay elevated or continue firming in the near term as robust demand persists, carriers maintain supply discipline ahead of contract negotiations, and carriers implement emergency bunker fuel surcharges. Shippers should secure space promptly to help mitigate further upside risk.
Trans-Pac General Rate Increases (GRI):
March 15 GRI implemented.
April 1 GRI announced and likely.
April 15 GRI announced and likely.
Airfreight Market
Capacity & Demand: Asia-Pacific remains the global growth engine, with strong Trans-Pacific momentum supported by record-high Taiwan AI chip exports and continued Chinese e-commerce demand (Shein, Temu) on China–US routes. Shanghai Pudong posted solid year-over-year growth in February from e-commerce and semiconductors. Some carriers have reported softer volumes on certain Trans-Pacific lanes amid trade tensions and have reduced capacity on those routes, reallocating lift to Asia-Europe and intra-Asia services. Anchorage (a key Trans-Pacific hub) still showed positive year-over-year growth.
Pricing: Best available rates on major China–US routes have moved sharply higher week-on-week, with increases in the 25–45% range across many lanes depending on gateway and service type. Overall rate levels are now significantly elevated compared to recent weeks. Capacity remains tight due to the ongoing widebody freighter shortage (with new deliveries delayed into 2027), elevated jet-fuel prices, and carriers reallocating lift away from Trans-Pacific lanes.
Carrier Fuel Surcharge & Linkage Announcements (effective late March 2026)
To address surging jet fuel costs, carriers have taken decisive action:
Lufthansa Cargo has increased its airfreight surcharge (effective 30 March 2026).
Major Chinese carriers have adjusted fuel surcharges (effective 27 March 2026) with tiered increases based on Brent crude oil price bands for routes to the US, Europe, Southeast Asia, and Japan/Korea.
One major Chinese logistics provider has introduced a formal fuel-price linkage mechanism tied to ICE Brent crude futures for services involving China, Vietnam, and Thailand.
These surcharges are being applied on top of base rates and are a primary driver of the recent rate spikes.
The U.S. Market
A partial government shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is ongoing while lawmakers debate funding. This has created extended delays and operational challenges at airports nationwide. Cargo flight operations have not been disrupted to date and continue as usual; however, as the shutdown persists there is growing concern that TSA cargo screening procedures could begin to see disruptions.
Truckers have implemented higher fuel surcharges in response to rising Brent crude oil costs. Paired with ongoing capacity shortages, truckload rates have increased week-over-week. Demand remains strong, driven by robust industrial and manufacturing activity, which is further straining an already shrunken truckload supply. Capacity tightness is expected to intensify in the coming weeks as the produce season moves into full swing and construction activity ramps up with warmer weather.
USWC: Average rail dwell times are holding steady at 4.5 days with no widespread berthing congestion reported. Port volumes are down year-over-year.
USEC: Conditions have returned to normal as winter weather impacts have eased. Port operations are experiencing only minimal delays.
USMW: Inland rail service to Midwest hubs (such as Chicago) continues to show efficient dwell times, supported by e-commerce diversions from coastal routes. Some potential delays are expected in the coming days due to incoming inclement weather and snowfall.
USSW: Moderate congestion has been reported across Gulf ports. Houston has successfully managed the reinstatement of terminal fees without creating major backups. Overall conditions remain stable and are expected to stay that way in the near term.
Janel Group continues to closely monitor the market and port situation. Updates will be provided as they become available. To secure a booking or explore additional options for your supplier, please reach out to your Janel Group Representative.
Vice President of Commercial Strategy
Sr. Pricing & Commercial Support Analyst