Ocean Freight Market
Capacity & Demand: Early May blank sailings have created space shortages, particularly on US West Coast loops and Pacific Southwest services. Feeder networks from Southeast Asia to key transshipment hubs are also under pressure. Sustained demand and recent blanks have stabilized the market following a brief April lull. April containerized volumes fell nearly 5% year-over-year, with capacity also down both month-on-month and year-over-year. Hints of front-loading persist amid ongoing USTR Section 301 investigations. No service rationalization has occurred due to bunker fuel shortages, and carriers remain cautious given an uncertain long-term demand outlook.
Pricing: Carriers implemented modest GRIs on May 1 and May 15. Rates are expected to level off and begin softening in the second half of May. Lower fuel oil prices could blunt longer-term surcharge pressure, though June emergency bunker surcharges are anticipated. If demand underwhelms, rates could peak around June 1 before declining.
Trans-Pac General Rate Increases (GRI):
May 1 GRI implemented.
May 15 GRI implemented.
June 1 GRI announced, but unclear
Airfreight Market
Capacity & Demand: Short-term volatility continues into May. Oil price swings and geopolitical disruptions (now expected through Q3) sustain modal-shift demand from sea to air. Core Shanghai-origin lanes have eased this week, while secondary origins held firm or strengthened. Early-May holiday adjustments and summer schedule changes could tighten capacity further. Modal-shift demand will not disappear overnight.
Pricing: Weekly spot rates showed mixed movement, with easing on some core lanes and firm-to-higher rates from secondary origins. Strains on capacity and upcoming schedule shifts are expected to firm rates through the remainder of May and into June.
The U.S. Market
Domestic trucking remains in a clear upcycle with tight capacity as industrial demand continues to strengthen. US regulations are continuing to pull capacity out of the market, while truckload rejection rates have climbed to multi-year highs. Combined with persistently elevated fuel costs, short-term rate pressure is expected to continue through at least Q2.
USWC: Average rail dwell times are 4.5 days; no widespread berthing congestion reported. Volumes at port reported as decreased YoY.
USEC: Port operations impacted by minimal delays. Weather delays and backlogs resolved and conditions normal.
USMW: Inland rail to Midwest hubs like Chicago shows efficient dwell times, supported by e-commerce diversions from coastal routes.
USSW: Some congestion reported across Gulf ports, with Houston reporting increased YOY volumes as carriers rebalance service loops.
Janel Group continues to closely monitor the market and port situation. Updates will be provided as they become available. To secure a booking or explore additional options for your supplier, please reach out to your Janel Group Representative.
Vice President of Commercial Strategy
Sr. Pricing & Commercial Support Analyst