Ocean Freight Market
Over the past three weeks, demand on the Trans-Pacific route has kept declining, with imports of consumer goods in June reaching their lowest point in five years. This sharp drop follows a remarkable 43.0% spike in the preceding three months. Shipping lines failed to apply or hold onto the general rate hike scheduled for August 1, additional vessels added to the Transpacific service in April and May are now being pulled back, and efforts are intensifying around planned voyage cancellations (57% on Trans-Pacific eastbound routes) to preserve existing freight rates.
Shippers report that a substantial volume of autumn and holiday goods has already arrived in the US, driven by the earlier-noted rush to beat tariffs. Forecasts indicate that reservation volumes for Transpacific services will hold steady at reduced rates, while emerging peak season patterns for holiday retail shipments suggest a subdued future.
On matters of tariffs, trade, and regulatory adherence, please reference Janel Group’s separate bulletin detailing all relevant information based on the August 1st changes.
Trans-Pac General Rate Increases (GRI):
August 1 GRI cancelled.
August 15 GRI announced but unlikely.
September 1 GRI announced.
Airfreight Market
Air freight rates on Trans-Pacific Eastbound routes have been mixed but generally stable, with China-US spot rates dipping 7% overall since early July tariff deadlines. Asia-Pacific to US tonnages rebounded 3% week-over-week in mid-July, driven by Southeast Asia origins, but this appears corrective rather than a tariff surge. Forecasts and projections for air cargo reservations suggest a cautious and restrained outlook for Transpacific routes, driven by expected new duty De Minimis regulations that could significantly alter E-Commerce shipment demands. Carriers observed reduced demand in the latter part of July, with a notable decline in requests for E-Commerce cargo bookings.
The U.S. Market
Market Overview:
The US Maritime Administration (MADRAD) has awarded grants to revitalize and updated US shipyard. Across 12 states, 17 shipyards will receive funding and grants intended to strengthen shipbuilding and repair on US soil, as well as invest in advanced training, technologies and acquiring a robust workforce. This grant process aims to advance USA’s maritime dominance and resolve supply chain weaknesses.
Department of Transportation and US Transportation Secretary Sean P Duffy announced the initiation of the surface transportation reauthorization as a part of President Trump’s Get America Building Again plans. The agenda of the plan includes efforts to enhance transportation safety, accelerating project delivery, increasing opportunities, and strengthening partnerships. The efforts of Get America Building Again aim to further strengthen supply chains, giving support to domestic and surface transportation to maintain and build new infrastructure.
USWC: Good conditions reported
Stable operations with minimal delays; vessel waiting times under 1 day on average. Post-tariff import slowdown has eased congestion from earlier peaks (e.g., LA handled record 9.4M TEUs in 2024 overall, but July 2025 saw a rush followed by normalization). No major labor or weather disruptions; throughput down 4.8-26.3% y/y in May due to tariffs, but stabilizing.
USEC: Localized challenges, stabilizing conditions.
Moderate congestion in select areas (e.g., NY/NJ returning to normal after earlier surges); average delays 1-2 days, down from pandemic highs. Labor shortages and potential strike risks linger post-ILA negotiations, but throughput is stabilizing with 7-16% m/m variances. Tariff diversions have increased volumes here, edging out the West Coast in April, but recent data shows normalization.
USMW: Good conditions reported.
Efficient operations with low congestion; vessel dwell times are minimal (<1 day). Great Lakes ports benefit from inland connectivity, avoiding coastal tariff bottlenecks. No significant weather impacts reported; volumes steady, supported by regional manufacturing and agriculture exports. Limited data on disruptions, aligning with overall stability in non-coastal hubs
USSW: Some congestion reported, minor delays at port reported.
Pockets of congestion due to recent tropical weather (e.g., Port condition X-ray set at Tampa Bay/Manatee amid Tropical Cyclone Nine remnants); delays averaging 1-3 days. Hurricane risks elevated for 2025 season, with clustering forecasts threatening Gulf trade lanes. Tariff effects milder here, but throughput dips noted (e.g., 10-16% declines in related lanes); labor and infrastructure strains persist.
Janel Group continues to closely monitor the market and port situation. Updates will be provided as they become available. To secure a booking or explore additional options for your supplier, please reach out to your Janel Group Representative.
Director of Procurement and Strategic Partnerships
Sr. Pricing & Commercial Support Analyst