Ocean Freight Market
Capacity: Blank sailings are ramping up in late September ahead of China's National Day, with lower overall deployment than 2024 despite tepid demand. Carriers like O.N.E., Yang Ming, and HMM have suspended key services to build roll pools, tightening space into October while adjusting for USTR 301 fees.
Demand: Booking volumes remain below seasonal norms, though some lanes show strength; load factors hover at 90-100% on average, with marginal upticks expected toward month-end.
Pricing: Spot rates hold steady post-September 1 adjustment, balancing competitive levels against utilization goals. No major increases anticipated on September 15, but stronger factors should stabilize trends through Q4 peak season, with potential softening later.
Trans-Pac General Rate Increases (GRI):
September 1 GRI cancelled.
September 15 GRI cancelled.
October 1 GRI announced, dependent on peak season volumes.
Airfreight Market
Capacity: Tight global transportation persists, with Chinese airlines deploying passenger flights to secondary European hubs for competitive entry. Major lanes remain open, supported by e-commerce and focused deployments on high-yield routes like Southeast Asia-North America, Middle East, and Africa; carriers diverting from USA amid De Minimus impacts.
Demand: Peak season underway via new tech launches, but growth moderate due to supply chain adjustments and sharp China-USA e-commerce decline from customs changes. Some lane strength evident, with seasonal load factors below norms yet trending upward marginally.
Pricing: Week-over-week spot rate gains across key China-origin routes reflect peak pressures and capacity constraints, showing slight overall upward trajectory despite mixed results on select lanes.
The U.S. Market
The USTR's Section 301 service fees on Chinese vessel operators and China-built ships, starting at $50 per net ton on October 14, 2025, and rising incrementally to $140 by 2028, remain on track to go into effect on 10/14.
Implementation Probability: 95% likelihood of on-schedule rollout on Oct 14, given finalized April actions and reciprocal tariff push (e.g., 10% universal hikes in Feb/Apr 2025), despite industry pushback on economic risks. A 5% delay risk stems from ongoing exclusions reviews expiring Nov 29.
Next 60 Days (Sept 16–Nov 15): Pre-Implementation Rush (Sept–Oct 13): Carriers like COSCO and HMM will retain fleets on transpacific routes, absorbing up to $1.02B in fees for COSCO in the first six months, while others (Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, ONE, Yang Ming) accelerate ship reallocations to non-US trades, tightening capacity and possibly lifting spot rates 5-10% short-term. CMA CGM and Zim plan to relocate all China-built vessels by the deadline, but delays could expose them to initial fees.
Post-Implementation (Oct 14–Nov 15): Fee collections begin, with non-Chinese carriers facing minimal to no impact due to proactive shifts. Watch for surcharges from Chinese lines (e.g., COSCO) and potential service disruptions if rates don't recover. Overall market: Expect 2-5% rate softening if capacity eases, per ongoing trends.
Preparation for October Bookings:
Prioritize non-Chinese carriers (e.g., Maersk, ONE) to sidestep fees—secure space now amid reallocations.
Budget 5-15% for potential surcharges from COSCO/HMM; negotiate clauses for fee passthroughs.
Diversify routes (e.g., via Mexico/Canada) and monitor USTR updates weekly. Front-load Q4 volumes by Sept end to lock in pre-fee rates. Stakeholders: Track Linerlytica-style analyses for fleet shifts.
The elimination of US Customs’ De Minimis exemptions minimums led to a drastic plunge in international postal services to the US. More than 80 postal operators have ended or paused services to U.S. destinations. E-commerce supply chains have been massively disrupted by the end of the exemption. The long-term impacts remain unclear at this time.
Containers fell overboard from Zim Mississippi after a stack collapse at the port of Long Beach. Port authorities report no serious injuries, though operations at Pier G have been disrupted by the events. Two stacks collapsed towards the starboard side into the berth, one over the port side into the terminal, resulting in 67 to 75 containers falling. Recovery efforts continue, and a full investigation is in progress to determine the cause of the collapse. Operations in other piers of Los Angeles and Long Beach have not been impacted, with only slight delays reported.
Regional Port & Terminal Conditions:
USWC: Generally good conditions, though minor delays persist at Long Beach due to the Zim incident and high yard utilization (around 70%). Average rail dwell times are 4.5 days; no widespread berthing congestion reported, but tariff-driven rerouting adds slight pressure.
USEC: Conditions stabilizing amid localized challenges. Savannah reports moderate congestion (4-6 day vessel waits) from cargo surges, with steady post-Labor Day import rail and terminal operations; Europe service shifts may introduce minor delays. Mild Southeast gateway backups persist due to cross-border parcel disruptions and seasonal volumes, offset by proactive carrier adjustments—watch for holiday escalation. Overall congestion is moderate per trade KPIs, with no major disruptions noted.
USMW: Inland rail to Midwest hubs like Chicago shows efficient dwell times, supported by e-commerce diversions from coastal routes.
USSW: Some congestion reported across Gulf ports, with Houston managing reinstated terminal fees without major backups.
Janel Group continues to closely monitor the market and port situation. Updates will be provided as they become available. To secure a booking or explore additional options for your supplier, please reach out to your Janel Group Representative.
Sr. Director of Commercial Strategy
Sr. Pricing & Commercial Support Analyst