Ocean Freight Market
Capacity: Amid pre-tariff scrambles from a threatened (now rescinded) 100% US tariff effective Nov 1, export volumes surged from China, driving a week-over-week booking rush for West Coast services and load factors >100% in late October—especially in Central China ports like Ningbo—while East Coast demand lagged at 90-100% utilization. Shippers and BCOs faced overbooking and rollovers, with sporadic equipment shortages emerging from the spike but expected to normalize by early November.
Demand: West Coast loops hit 100% utilization from oversubscription in Central China (e.g., Ningbo chaos), compounded by Gemini carriers (Maersk/Hapag-Lloyd) canceling two PS7 sailings due to reciprocal China fees—now suspended after deployment adjustments—while East Coast held steady at 90-100% post-National Day blanks. Overall blank sailings eased to 0-12% across corridors (PSW: 8-25%, PNW: 0-12%, USEC: 0-10%), with stable schedules in South China/SE Asia minimizing disruptions.
Pricing: Transpacific Eastbound (TPEB) spot rates surged week-over-week amid a pre-tariff rush from China, with FAK rates rising to reflect the higher demand. Rates have peaked for the first week of November, and are likely to hold elevated for 1-1.5 weeks before softening mid-November as demand tapers and capacity stabilizes.
Trans-Pac General Rate Increases (GRI):
November 1 GRI implemented but not expected to hold.
November 15 GRI announced, partial implementation expected.
December 1 GRI announced.
Airfreight Market
Capacity: Tight global constraints persist amid 4.6% YoY expansion outpaced by 8.2% demand growth in November 2024; early 2025 load factors held at 45.9% despite e-commerce surges and sea disruptions shifting volumes to air. Supply bottlenecks from aircraft availability and infrastructure limit growth, with belly capacity strains on key U.S. gateways like ORD/IAH.
Demand: Peak season ramps up with transpacific volumes boosted by U.S.-China trade thaw post-Oct 30 Trump-Xi summit (soy, rare earths, semiconductors, energy cargoes loading). Holiday e-comm/fast-goods surge and sea-to-air shifts stress capacity further, per IATA's 2025 forecast of 73.5M tonnes (+5.8% YoY).
Pricing: Week-over-week spot gains on China-origin routes reflect holiday pressures and constraints, with premium JFK/ORD lanes up 2-10%, LAX dipping slightly, and deferred rates (DFR) advancing +5-10% on ORD/IAH. Steady trajectory expected into Q4 peak despite mixed lane results, signaling potential softening if sea stabilizes.
The U.S. Market
President Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on October 30, yielding key trade pacts alongside agreements with Japan and South Korea. A full fact sheet outlining the agreements can be found on the White House website. These changes have been announced but are not yet official. We are still waiting for formal documentation via an Executive Order (EO), Federal Register Notice (FRN), or a CSMS update from CBP and will send out a standalone update once confirmed.
U.S. Regional Port/Rail Conditions:
USWC: Generally good conditions, though delays are expected as incoming volumes surge in the coming weeks. Average rail dwell times are 4.5 days; no widespread berthing congestion reported, but may become delayed as vessels with high-load volumes reach the terminal.
USEC: Conditions stabilizing amid localized challenges. Savannah reports moderate congestion (4-6 day vessel waits) from cargo surges. Combined increased volumes from China, in addition to Europe service shifts, may introduce minor delays. Mild Southeast gateway backups persist due to cross-border parcel disruptions and seasonal volumes, offset by proactive carrier adjustments—watch for holiday escalation. Overall congestion is moderate per trade KPIs, with no major disruptions noted. Hurricane Melissa made direct passage over Western Jamaica on October 30. Larger impacts on trade are expected due to closures of key Caribbean transshipment ports. Wider disruptions to North and South America routes will be expected until operations can return to normal.
USMW: Inland rail to Midwest hubs like Chicago shows efficient dwell times, supported by e-commerce diversions from coastal routes.
USSW: Some congestion reported across Gulf ports, with Houston managing reinstated terminal fees without major backups. Gulf and Florida ports prepare for hurricane season.
Janel Group continues to closely monitor the market and port situation. Updates will be provided as they become available. To secure a booking or explore additional options for your supplier, please reach out to your Janel Group Representative.
Sr. Director of Commercial Strategy
Sr. Pricing & Commercial Support Analyst