Ocean Freight Market
Demand: Pre-tariff surge has fully tapered following the Trump-Xi agreements. Inventory levels are contracting as the early November rush subsides, with weaker demand expected into late November. Shippers are now shifting last-minute holiday volume to air freight, easing ocean pressure.
Capacity: Utilization has dropped to 91% on Asia–USWC/USEC lanes. Blank sailing remains moderate (7% of scheduled capacity), with ongoing cancellations on East-West trades. Warehousing capacity and utilization continue to expand but at a slower pace, providing additional breathing room.
Pricing: Spot rates have normalized and stabilized as demand softens and capacity loosen. The market is expected to remain steady through year-end, supported by reduced ocean volume and the shift to air for urgent holiday shipments.
Trans-Pac General Rate Increases (GRI):
November 15 GRI cancelled.
December 1 GRI announced but not expected to hold.
December 15 GRI announced, but unclear.
Airfreight Market
Capacity: E-commerce surge ahead of Black Friday has fully offset softer general cargo volumes. Airlines report space is critically tight, especially on TPE/HKG origins. Heightened holiday demand expected to keep pressure high through Lunar New Year. Case-by-case booking checks are strongly advised.
Demand: Global air freight capacity remains severely constrained. Ongoing shift of urgent holiday volume from ocean to air is absorbing available lift, with no meaningful relief in sight into early 2026.
Pricing: Spot rates continue a sharp upward trajectory week-over-week on most major China-origin lanes, driven by peak-season e-commerce demand and persistent capacity shortages. Minor softening on isolated routes does not change the overall firm-to-rising trend.
The U.S. Market
Hurricane Melissa Impacts
The storm's late-October passage devastated Caribbean transshipment hubs, including closures in Jamaica (e.g., Kingston) and Cuba, causing at least 90 regional deaths and $6-7 billion in damages. This has led to widespread disruptions in North-South America routes, with delayed relief efforts and infrastructure outages hindering recovery. US East Coast ports face indirect effects via rerouted vessels and potential rough surf/rip currents through mid-November; no direct US landfall but monitor for supply chain ripples into 2026.
Janel Group offices will close November 27 in observance of Thanksgiving. Offices will resume standard operating hours on November 28. We wish everyone a safe and Happy Thanksgiving!
U.S. Regional Port/Rail Conditions:
USWC: Conditions remain generally stable, but rail dwell times have extended to nearly eight days amid surging incoming volumes. No widespread berthing congestion yet, though high-load vessels are expected to pressure terminals in the coming weeks. Proactive planning advised shippers to mitigate inland delays.
USEC: Stabilizing overall, with moderate congestion at Savannah (4-6 day vessel waits) due to cargo surges from China and Europe service shifts. Mild backups in Southeast gateways persist from cross-border parcel issues and seasonal volumes, offset by carrier adjustments. Monitor for holiday escalations; Norfolk Southern has discontinued select intermodal routes (e.g., Virginia to Memphis) since May due to low volumes, potentially rerouting traffic.
USMW: Inland rail to Chicago hubs maintains efficient dwell times, bolstered by e-commerce diversions from coastal routes. Recent completion of the Forest Hill Flyover project (November 14) should eliminate key bottlenecks, enhancing freight flow for CSX, Norfolk Southern, and others expected to reduce delays by up to three days on intermodal traffic.
USSW: Congestion reported across Gulf ports, with Houston facing rising truck traffic and potential yard backups despite reinstated terminal fees. Persistent constraints on USGC exports are likely to continue; ports are preparing for residual hurricane season risks. Overall, moderate trade KPIs show no major disruptions beyond localized surges.
Janel Group continues to closely monitor the market and port situation. Updates will be provided as they become available. To secure a booking or explore additional options for your supplier, please reach out to your Janel Group Representative.
Sr. Director of Commercial Strategy
Sr. Pricing & Commercial Support Analyst