Ocean Freight Market
Demand: US imports from Asia declined by over 6% year-on-year through November, marking seven consecutive months of flat or negative container import growth into 2025. Soft demand has persisted into early December, with volumes remaining subdued amid ample capacity and a lack of pre-Lunar New Year momentum. Rebounds are anticipated toward the end of December as holiday exports begin to ramp up, potentially stabilizing volumes into January-February.
Capacity: Transpacific eastbound capacity remains ample heading into late December, with fewer blank sailings than expected and cancelled sailings impacting less than 10% of operating capacity in the first half of the month. Average vessel utilization holds steady at 90-95% on routes to the Pacific Southwest and US East Coast (including Gulf), and 85-95% to the Pacific Northwest. Carriers show limited "winter deployment" activity, signaling preparations for a potential market share battle, while Weeks 51 and 52 may see slight increases in blanks to the PSW and East Coast, modestly tightening functional capacity.
Pricing: Spot rates saw a brief uptick following the partial December 1 GRI, but rates continued to slide up until now. The December 15 GRI will be implemented to December 1 levels, but likely see the same fate by end of December. Carriers are trapped in bi-weekly GRI cycles to avoid year-to-date lows becoming entrenched but capacity dynamics are favoring shippers through year-end.
Trans-Pac General Rate Increases (GRI):
December 1 GRI implemented but not sustained.
December 15 GRI to be implemented, but not likely to hold.
January 1 GRI announced.
Airfreight Market
Capacity: Global air cargo capacity grew YoY but remains tight, lagging demand during the December peak. E-commerce surges, fleet maintenance, and ground handling constraints keep space constrained, especially Asia→North America. Tightness will persist through year-end and into Lunar New Year, with only a shortened Q4 peak expected.
Demand: Air cargo demand posted its eighth straight month of growth, fueled by e-commerce and holiday promotions. Asia-Pacific to North America volumes rose overall, with Southeast Asia offsetting softer Northeast Asia flows. Space is critically tight; a modest, shortened peak is forecast for Q4, with early 2026 replenishment possible.
Pricing: Rates rose steadily through November on peak-season demand and capacity constraints, with Asia-Pacific lanes showing solid YoY gains. Spot increases continue on key routes; expect stabilization after Christmas, followed by renewed upward pressure in Jan-Feb ahead of Lunar New Year.
The U.S. Market
U.S. freight volumes are softening into year-end, with December imports forecasted to decline 16.6% year-over-year, marking the lowest monthly total since June 2023 amid high retail inventories and minimal holiday front-loading. Rail intermodal volumes dropped 6.5% in November as port activity cooled, though overall rail traffic remains up modestly year-to-date. Cross-border trucking faces rising costs and potential delays from new tariffs, paused visas, and stricter CDL enforcement.
USWC: Marginal delays continue due to short-term volume peaks and railcar shortages, with some containers waiting 1-2 weeks for rail loading. Average rail dwell holds at 4.5 days, but terminal gate congestion may push full clearing into late December. No widespread berthing delays, though high-volume vessels could create temporary pressure.
USEC: Conditions are stabilizing post-hurricane. Savannah remains moderately congested with 4-6 day vessel waits and occasional 2-day added berthing time depending on vessel draft. Inland rail strength is evident, with the Appalachian Regional Port setting a November record of 3,876 containers (up 35% YoY). Winter weather and potential snowfall are the main risks for the next two weeks.
USMW: Inland rail to Chicago and other Midwest hubs maintains efficient dwell times (around 1.3 days), supported by e-commerce diversions from coastal gateways. Winter weather could add 12-24 hours to transit times; monitor grain and intermodal flows closely for snow-related slowdowns.
USSW: Gulf ports show light to moderate congestion. Houston reports minimal vessel waits (0-3 hours at major terminals) despite reinstated terminal fees. The Houston Ship Channel expansion continues to progress. Residual hurricane-season vigilance remains, though import declines are easing overall throughput pressure.
Janel Group continues to closely monitor the market and port situation. Updates will be provided as they become available. To secure a booking or explore additional options for your supplier, please reach out to your Janel Group Representative.
Sr. Director of Commercial Strategy
Sr. Pricing & Commercial Support Analyst