Ocean Freight Market
Capacity & Demand: Post-holiday demand lull and 2025 front-loading have deepened overcapacity, with US import volumes forecast for double-digit y/y declines through Q1 2026 amid tariff impacts and uncertainty. Carriers are aggressively managing via increased blank sailings (highest on TPEB routes into mid-January) and service adjustments. Early bookings for the late February Lunar New Year provide limited support, but overall, softened demand and oversupply dominate the near-term outlook.
Pricing: Partial success on late-2025 GRIs, but excess capacity has driven spot rate erosion into year-end. Downward pressure expected to persist despite carrier efforts.
Trans-Pac General Rate Increases (GRI):
January 1 GRI implemented but not likely to hold.
January 15 GRI announced, but unlikely.
February 1 GRI announced, but unlikely.
Airfreight Market
Capacity & Demand: Global air cargo volumes grew robustly in 2025, outpacing capacity additions despite holiday passenger surges constraining belly space and pressuring freighter utilization. Post-holiday lull brings brief softening in early January, with demand dipping amid slack season conditions. However, a pre-Lunar New Year (February 17, 2026) rush is anticipated in late January/early February as shippers front-load ahead of factory closures, driven by e-commerce recovery, AI/semiconductor components, perishables, and pharmaceuticals. Overall 2026 outlook remains resilient with modest ~2.4-2.6% global volume growth supported by high-value/time-sensitive goods.
Pricing: Spot rates softened into late 2025 as peak demands eased, with further downward trends expected in the near-term slack period amid recovering belly capacity from rising passenger traffic. Renewed upward pressure likely in late January from pre-LNY surge and repositioning of freighters.
The U.S. Market
Post-holiday lull and front-loading ahead of potential tariffs have led to declining import volumes, with double-digit year-over-year drops forecast for Jan-Apr 2026 (e.g., Jan ~11% down). Blank sailings are increasing due to softer demand overseas, easing pressure on ports but signaling oversupply in ocean freight. Severe winter storms are causing rail and passenger service cancellations/delays in the Midwest, with blizzard conditions impacting operations.
USWC: Marginal delays from short-term peaks and congestion persist, with average rail dwell ~4.5 days and no widespread berthing issues. Blank sailings rising due to decreased overseas bookings; future congestion unlikely as post-holiday lull and tariff uncertainty reduce incoming volumes—providing relief after 2025 front-loading surges.
USEC: Stabilizing amid localized challenges, including moderate congestion at Savannah (4-6 day vessel waits from recent cargo surges). Normalization expected in coming weeks as vessel volumes decline with softer demand and blank sailings; overall East Coast seeing volume drops post-2025 diversions.
USMW: Efficient inland rail dwell times to hubs like Chicago, bolstered by e-commerce rerouting from coasts. Potential delays loom from ongoing severe winter storms, snowfall, and blizzard conditions disrupting Midwest rail/passenger services.
USSW: Some congestion across Gulf ports, but Houston managing reinstated terminal fees (updated effective early 2026) without major backups. Conditions stable overall, expected to remain so amid declining import volumes and post-holiday slowdown.
Janel Group continues to closely monitor the market and port situation. Updates will be provided as they become available. To secure a booking or explore additional options for your supplier, please reach out to your Janel Group Representative.
Sr. Director of Commercial Strategy
Sr. Pricing & Commercial Support Analyst