Ocean Freight Market
Trans-Pacific freight rates have gone full circle from 200% increases in May, now back to the 2025 median levels for both East and West coasts. We expect rates to maintain these levels with directional dependence on the result of the 8/1 and 8/12 tariff levels.
The ongoing US-China tariff truce, featuring a short-term halt and lowering of specific mutual tariffs on goods from China, is still active and scheduled to conclude on August 12, 2025. Advance shipping spurred by these tariff reprieves has tapered off, as softening demand follows the Trump administration's disclosures of updated tariff rates and delayed enforcement until August 1. June 2025 data on U.S. container imports illustrates this trend, showing a 1.8% rise over May yet a 3.5% drop compared to June 2024, indicating a steadying phase after the steep fall in May, while importers adjust their logistics strategies. Imports from China saw a modest 0.4% uptick from May but remained 28.3% down year-on-year, prolonging the sharp decline initiated in May amid heightened tariffs and the elimination of the de minimis rule for exemptions; this came after April's surge in preemptive shipments, causing China's portion of U.S. imports to dip to 28.8%—far from its 40.0% high in July 2024—as companies shift sourcing increasingly to Southeast Asia and alternative areas.
Worldwide trade remains under pressure, as ongoing Red Sea issues—worsened by the Iran-Israel tensions—lead to expensive detours and extended shipping durations, compounded by uncertainties in trade talks that hinder effective supply chain strategies. Under these circumstances, companies should prioritize adaptability, vigilant tracking of global political shifts, and bolstering the durability of their supply networks as situations change.
Red Sea diversions persist due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and instability in the Middle East. Despite this, recent discussions regarding ceasefires and regional de-escalation have alleviated some carrier concerns. As a result, service interruptions are anticipated to remain consistent with current patterns.
Trans-Pac General Rate Increases (GRI):
July 15 GRI cancelled.
August 1 GRI announced, but unclear.
August 15 GRI announced.
Airfreight Market
Trans-Pacific air freight booking demand has leveled off in response to tariff deadline extensions. Despite slack season conditions supporting eroding spot rates, the market sustained, likely due to summer travel trends. Passenger luggage dominated aircraft belly capacity, allowing airlines to maintain higher spot rates. It is expected that rates will remain steady over the coming weeks.
The U.S. Market
Market Overview:
Congestion and freight conditions at major terminals are gradually normalizing as incoming volumes stabilize, primarily because tariff suspensions have reduced booking rushes. Truckers report eased strain on fleet capacity amid declining imports, aligning with typical slack-season levels. However, persistent trade disputes at the U.S.-Mexico border over produce imports continue to disrupt the market, prompting truckers to reallocate capacity and creating localized shortages.
Port market shares shifted significantly in June: the top five West Coast ports boosted their share to 45.4% of total top-port volume, which was the highest since January, while East and Gulf Coast counterparts dropped to 38.7%, undoing May's brief advance. Congestion eased markedly across ports after May's temporary backups, and carriers ramped up blank sailings to counter declining bookings, softening spot rates, and potential further rate declines.
USWC: Volumes stabilized, good conditions reported.
USEC: Localized challenges, conditions stabilizing.
USMW: Good conditions reported.
USSW: Some congestion reported, minor delays at port reported.
Janel Group continues to closely monitor the market and port situation. Updates will be provided as they become available. To secure a booking or explore additional options for your supplier, please reach out to your Janel Group Representative.
Director of Procurement and Strategic Partnerships
Sr. Pricing & Commercial Support Analyst